The US government is closed officially for the first time since 1995, marking the 18th closure in 37 years. In the face of this looming threat, bearish bets on global equities failed to gain momentum yesterday and foreign stock markets actually closed up overnight. Moreover, US stock markets seem poised to rise at the open this morning. Apparently, the deadline that matters is October 17th when the US is expected to reach its debt ceiling. If the summer of 2011 supplies any lessons, investors will sell stocks and seek the “safety” of Treasuries (insert Rod Serling narrative here) as we approach the debt ceiling deadline. For macroeconomic context, note that the latest 2nd quarter US GDP growth estimate was 2.5%, in line with the previous estimate and slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.6%.