Flash Report March 2018

Markets are experiencing a form of March Madness trying to reconcile accelerating late-stage growth, concern the Fed might precipitate a recession without adequate resources to jump start the economy, and the practical import of trade and regulatory oversight tweets on global growth and tech companies. Reaction has been predictably volatile and likely excessive given the strength of growth, profits, and wages. Nonetheless, bear case deflationary fears, spawned by growing debt and deficits, are not entirely fanciful and will ultimately constrain returns through expectations of rising real rates and requirements for larger risk premiums.

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