A basket of nongovernmental data below paints a mixed picture for the economy, while we wait for a full return of government economic data
Services activity moved back to an expansionary level, small business hiring plans are actually above their 10-year average per the NFIB, and the airports are busy
However, business optimism is down, overall private sector employment growth is below average per ADP, the manufacturing PMI is contractionary, and consumers are gloomy
Markets have been highly focused on Fed rate cuts as inflation remains above target and government employment data remains absent
This has led to recent moderate declines in equity markets which could be interpreted as a welcome test of high valuations if this is not the beginning of some larger correction
Rates remain well behaved as a supporting backdrop while high yield OAS slowly ticks upward but remains below its long-term average
